Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 72618.240228 76777.674577 80943.676716 85426.297562 90110.181455 94856.863095 100027.774423
2025-11-30 65840.066919 72182.173101 78719.128941 85951.039030 93718.148227 101799.935498 110835.395416
2025-12-07 61111.447853 68952.852167 77219.981070 86566.265943 96819.184904 107704.554631 120115.281742
2025-12-14 57049.967439 65959.892031 75534.538356 86556.971834 98863.002406 112146.362915 127535.252406
2025-12-21 53929.900776 63700.804264 74377.086315 86862.284019 101013.737143 116506.756370 134700.796938
2025-12-28 52016.617215 62613.166316 74362.656730 88292.886317 104290.953194 122020.957552 143086.029671
2026-01-04 50117.667870 61393.883676 74067.578704 89284.290150 106970.685139 126790.563991 150587.992893
2026-01-11 48237.765471 60074.211118 73547.861209 89916.661041 109155.220272 130936.738583 157344.124223
2026-01-18 46258.961922 58528.961653 72667.053680 90036.555362 110667.630371 134252.528261 163107.438652
2026-01-25 44509.298979 57168.370100 71923.782918 90244.116735 112220.861327 137571.872624 168851.003834
2026-02-01 42737.809004 55699.814681 70977.687374 90140.580160 113347.072411 140348.345144 173932.815798
2026-02-08 41493.988282 54819.427084 70689.309225 90783.016020 115330.390650 144118.739668 180190.661396
2026-02-15 39880.244006 53436.486185 69755.370632 90618.993003 116336.630593 146742.464624 185128.089267
2026-02-22 39064.916763 53021.479027 69986.824127 91868.153591 119059.238123 151441.560627 192597.925842
2026-03-01 38094.568379 52367.828894 69886.194252 92676.972890 121223.805575 155463.169855 199265.726173
2026-03-08 36820.072644 51275.307644 69191.091691 92703.088022 122389.119253 158249.252412 204426.417515
2026-03-15 35761.067769 50422.063207 68763.219791 93034.171198 123911.180497 161461.918286 210115.285099
2026-03-22 35291.715427 50318.748993 69275.976654 94549.221585 126918.941206 166521.282825 218114.243341
2026-03-29 34648.733812 49959.311266 69437.219501 95598.153495 129330.787384 170846.675398 225226.545317
2026-04-05 33879.529159 49403.177028 69318.987960 96266.985870 131247.563442 174553.976714 231584.252338
2026-04-12 32924.694508 48565.103872 68803.203903 96393.791353 132451.351285 177357.233769 236813.665875
2026-04-19 32053.733817 47812.936662 68375.399525 96613.280675 133758.792154 180285.626413 242208.788166
2026-04-26 31093.441133 46908.231168 67717.276774 96503.798343 134619.712046 182636.217036 246873.325548